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Prepare for the New Spam Prevention Requirements in Gmail and Yahoo: A Guide for Email Marketers

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Finding your emails in the spam folder can be a nightmare for marketers. It not only means that your message did not reach the recipient, but it can also harm your future success. The more your emails are marked as spam, the lower your email deliverability can become over time. Additionally, being labeled as a spammer can damage your brand’s credibility and erode the trust you have built with your audience.

Major email providers like Gmail and Yahoo understand the annoyance of receiving spammy messages, which is why they have adjusted their screening policies to enforce email marketing best practices. These new policies will be effective in February 2024.

But what do these new policies mean for email marketers? It is crucial to comply with Gmail and Yahoo’s guidelines, but it is also important to note that following email marketing best practices means you are already on the path to success.

Let’s take a closer look at the new spam screening policies being implemented by Google and Yahoo to help you avoid being flagged as spam.

Google and Yahoo’s Spam Filtering Policies

Google and Yahoo’s new spam filtering policies require email marketers to:

  • Set up domain verification
  • Make it easy for recipients to unsubscribe from your emails
  • Keep your complaint reporting below 0.3%

Email senders who do not adhere to these policies are more likely to have their emails rejected or classified as spam.

Gmail will implement these new policies in February 2024, followed by Yahoo! Mail by the first quarter of 2024.

The good news is that these policies have long been recommended as general email marketing best practices. If you have been following these guidelines, you are already ahead in improving your overall reach and ensuring your emails stay in the inbox.

However, if you are uncertain about following these practices, do not worry. We will guide you through how to ensure you are aligned with these new policies.

Step-By-Step Guide to Following Gmail and Yahoo’s New Spam Prevention Requirements

1. Set Up Domain Authentication

One of the most common types of spam is spoofed emails, where the sender’s information is falsified to misrepresent the sender’s identity. Domain authentication is a set of electronic certificates that prove the sender’s identity. Setting up domain authentication is strongly encouraged as an email marketing best practice.

If you are sending emails from another company’s server, it is important to ensure that your domain is authenticated. If you do not have a private domain, inexpensive domain registrars are available for use.

2. Make it Easy to Unsubscribe

Email marketers should enable a “one-click unsubscribe” option that removes recipients from email marketing outreach within two days if they want to unsubscribe.

For BenchmarkONE users, a fully compliant unsubscribe system is already in place, and no special action is required.

3. Keep the Complaint Reporting Rate Below 0.3%

Email senders should aim to maintain a complaint reporting rate of less than 0.3% by only sending emails to recipients who have opted into their email marketing. Cleaning the email list regularly and avoiding purchased email lists are also important best practices.

For BenchmarkONE users, it is important to avoid sending emails to contacts who are less engaged and to ensure that the unsubscribe link is clearly visible.

Cooperation with these new policies from Google and Yahoo is essential for precise spam detection. Adhering to these policies means that subscribers will no longer receive spam, making it easier for them to find your emails, promotions, or newsletters in their inboxes.

Use this opportunity to deepen engagement with your subscribers!

Podcast: Quentin Willson talks about the origin of Top Gear and why electric cars are leading the way

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Television presenter and motoring journalist Quentin Willson joins hosts Jason Plato and Dave Vitty on the award-winning podcast Fuelling Around to reveal all about the early days of Top Gear and why electric cars are the future of transportation.

Willson is best known for starring in the original Top Gear, which started in 1991, and which he hosted alongside Jeremy Clarkson for over a decade. He was also a vocal campaigner  against the artificially higher prices of new cars in the UK compared to Europe and is widely credited for playing a major role in prompting the European Commission to take action and use block exemption regulations on the motoring industry to reduce prices.

The 66-year-old was also the national spokesman for FairFuelUK for a decade. He played a big part in pressuring the UK government to defer 11p of fuel duty rises, reducing the overall tax take by £5.5 billion.

Quentin Willson on why Teslas are superior and why electric cars are the future

During the episode Willson revealed his current day-to-day vehicle is his beloved Tesla Model 3 Performance, and argued that electric cars are the future because of their low maintenance costs.

“I remember first driving it thinking ‘good lord this is unfeasibly fast’”, Willson explained.

“I get 300 miles out of it in a single charge. I think Elon (Musk) does something to the batteries of his test cars, but we were driving this thing down the M40 trying to use up all the juice and putting on the heated seats, the air conditioning and everything to try and use the battery up, and you just couldn’t.

“And it was then that I thought ‘I’ve got to have one’. I’ve had that for three years now, it’s done 36,000 miles and still has the original tyres. In three years I’ve spent £120 on maintenance and that was only because I wasn’t using the brakes enough because you’ve got the regen, so you don’t touch the brakes and they get corroded.

“I took it to Tesla to free them off. But it’s been completely and utterly blameless. Nothing has gone wrong, nothing has had to be replaced.

“So when you think about it I love all the noise and all the smoke and all the cacophony of internal combustion cars, but really these electric things are just so good, so reliable, so quick, so silent, so superior in so many ways apart from that emotional connection, so for day-to-day stuff they’re great.

“It’s been ten years since you’ve been able to buy them, and we can do 300 plus miles. Imagine what it’s going to look like in the next ten years when you’ve got thousand mile ranges. So it is the future.

“Anything that can get rid of the particulates in the air, that can reduce our dependency on fossil fuels, that means that we don’t have to be slaves to (Vladimir) Putin and Saudi Arabia, has to be a good thing.”

Plenty more episodes of Fuelling Around to enjoy

Series seven is on its final lap, but if you haven’t listened to Fuelling Around before, you’ll be glad to know there’s a wealth of previous episodes from six series, and the current seventh, for you to listen to.

A host of celebrity guests have littered the award-winning podcast that has so far produced a string of excellent shows to listen to.

You can also tune into Fuelling Around on Spotify, Apple, YouTube or various other platforms if you want to see what all the fuss is about.

“Overview of Recent Investments: HAUTO:OSL, CMCX.L, ASHM.L, VOD.L, ECH, EBOX.L” – Deep Value Investments Blog

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Aware I haven’t posted in a while – been busy as you can see below..

Overall it’s been a difficult year, natural resources not the place to be. Rough performance right now is looking to be roughly flat.

Had a busy last couple of months adding a number of positions to the portfolio which may be of interest. A little bit of a health warning is needed as many of my ideas haven’t been working out of late.

My favourite is probably HAUTO.OSL 0 Hoegh Autoliners. This provides car shipping. The market is tight and prices are high. In an insanely volatile / specialised market such as shipping I would usually stay clear but some of the growth in demand is in Chinese EV’s being shipped to Europe. EV’s are far cheaper in China than Europe (for the same model) and Chinese EV’s (in Europe) far cheaper than those produced in Europe. There is some talk of import restrictions by the EU. Apparently they are being subsidized / dumped – despite retail prices in China being far lower (for the same vehicle) than the EU. Shipping is a challenge. Some older lower rate contracts are rolling off – but they are not the most transparent on this if the market stays tight likely to be good revenue rises…

HAUTO is trading at a PE of under 3 with a c20% yield. Book value is 70 NOK per share vs a share price of 86. Given this book value is underpinned by ships it should be pretty safe, they say the book value of their boats are worth less than the market value (P22). I don’t like the share price chart – I, sadly, got in following the recent rise at an average of about 89.6, currently the price is about 88. The share is owned by Leif Hoegh and Moller with a relatively small 26% free float – though a reasonable market cap of £1.24bn.

There are differing views on the likely future path of car shipping rates, there are lots of deliveries of ships the next 3/4 years. Some commentators expect a rapid fall in rates, others think demand will be there to hold prices up. There is also a question mark over underlying demand given rates / potential for recession / a war involving China and Taiwan. At the current rates I am prepared to take the risk. The cynic in me thinks even if there is war the transporters can transport tanks as well as vehicles! My weight in this is about 3.5%. Although it seems good idea (to me) I am a tourist to the (notoriously volatile) shipping market so will go a little easy.

Next idea is CMC markets – a holding from a while ago. Now the pandemic trading boom is over trading and profits are down. Earnings of 3-8p vs a price of 100p isn’t particularly cheap, though cashflow is likely going to e more positive. Dividend yield is about 4-5% looking forwards Nevertheless CMC has solid assets. Probably at least £120m surplus capital vs a market cap of £277m – though if punters start trading again they will need that money to fund operations. They have also invested lots in technology and their platform. There was talk of spinning this off - I will believe it when I see it. They have £37bn AUA and 152’000 active clients as well as the trading business. Compare this to Hargreaves Lansdown with £125bn AUA and a 3.5bn Market cap. OK it’s not entirely like with like but this is very cheap to my eyes. To me, the likely buyers are Peter Cruddas who already owns 59%. He is 70 but built the business from scratch and remains involved as CEO. Robinhood are looking to enter the UK market so may value the trading customers.

In my view the major negative is the management, particularly the CEO. They have very much a back to office approach rather than embracing remote. I think this is stupid, but typical. Far better to cut pay, hire from a wider area and not work people hard, than pay more have people work in London / the SE, paying lots of tax, commuting and living miserable lives, and also (likely) quitting far more often. This is not how to optimally run a company, the world has changed – but few companies accept this. I will give you this charming glassdoor review (one of many):

Pros
Complimentary drinking water and toilet roll is provided alongside a copy of the critically acclaimed, literary classic “Passport to Success: From Milkman to Mayfair” for all members of staff.
Cons
A once really nice company to work for is now in complete disarray, incredibly toxic and rotten to the core largely due to CEO who was once expelled by the Conservative party as part of a Cash for Access scandal in 2012 and has since been admitted into the House of Lords despite objections from the watchdog for access to the house of Lords. There is no direction, projects are not well thought through and management change their minds constantly flipping from one thing to the next with little thought of the consequences. The company is run like a dictatorship and the share price reflects this.
Additionally there absolutely no regard whatsoever for employees and their welfare. Flexible working arrangements were removed with four days notice in the middle of school summer holidays with no exceptions. Lots of people joined on the provision of flexible working however this ‘benefit’ was removed. Mass redundancies have since followed and morale is at an all time low. People are actively and openly discussing leaving the company and I really don’t blame them. The office is also egregious, it’s akin to sitting in a dungeon. There is next to no natural light, the office chairs are falling apart, the tea/coffee machines are not working more often than not. GB news is also displayed on the TVs around the office which says an awful lot about the company and their values. The Glassdoor score and share price plummeting says an awful lot about this company and where it is heading.
Advice to Management
It’s too late. The horse has bolted. You only have yourselves to blame.

Still one advantage of being in financial services is the CEO (who from the sound of things mandated back to office) is similar to pretty much all the rest of financial services who are equally backward – so competitive pressure is weaker… Weight is about 3.6% (average 92.5 (currently 98.39) – little concerned CEO will drive business into a death spiral as he seems terribly out of touch with what employees demand, there is no going back on some degree of work from home and more is a competitive advantage.

Next idea is Ashmore group. Feels like a trade I have done a thousand times before. Its an asset manager with a focus on emerging markets. £1.5bn MCAP, book value of assets worth (in theory) £900m, so, more-or-less you get an asset manager paying an 8% yield earning £75m in a bad year and £150-£200m in a good year for £600m. Some loose takeover talk, but nothing too serious. A strategy tip is to look for when the Investment trusts bounce from a bottom. The next sector to move is often asset managers with lots of cash / seed funds on the balance sheet. This one has worked out for me so far with an entry of 182.7 and a current price of 212. Not sure exactly where my target is – probably in the 300 region.

The next stock is VOD (Vodafone). Bought some at c68 current price is 65. I just think this is too cheap for what it is, a large, dominant telco trading at a yield of c10%, 24p a share free cash flow (maybe a bit less now) but at a share price of 65p it’s just too cheap. OK it has a lot of debt but that debt is fixed,low coupon and very, very long duration, seriously if you are running a big corp and can hire the guys who structured this you should… (P29 FY23 presentation)

It isn’t a problem for at least a few years and if rates are where they are now in the late 2020s / early 2030s, VOD will still be a relatively safe place to be – amongst chaos everywhere else. They have scope to sell businesses / cut costs. I really think what will happen here is a big long-term investor will buy this as a strategic asset – like buying an airport or water company. Emirates Investment Authority already owns 14%, Liberty Global 5%, they may feel tempted to take this out. They are trying for a merger with Three, doubtful this will be allowed, positive if it is as the market becomes more oligopolistic. They are bloated and badly run, though they seem to acknowledge this and may do something about it. Weight is 4.9%.

As something of an outlier I have bought ECH – ishares Chile ETF. I was looking for cheap stocks around the world and Chile lept out as ridiculously cheap. I would have much preferred to buy individual Chilean stocks but despite calling multiple brokers I haven’t been able to. Yield is 5% and a price to book of 1.22. The Santiago / Colombian and Lima Stock exchange plan to merge. I suspect Interactive Brokers / other brokers will then make the market more accessible and prices will rise as a result – I may be able to get in with a local broker before this… Very, very keen to get into Chile – stocks like PASUR – Chile forestry, 0.4x book with a 16% yield… The ETF is very much a compromise and best I can do for now. If anyone reading knows of a Chilean broker that accepts UK based clients please get in touch. This is a 2.8% weight – unfortunately due to UK regulations it is difficult to invest in the ETF so I have to spreadbet on it and pay a financing fee, limiting my size because of this. I also have a few tiny options positons. The irony is these regulations (requiring a KIID for products – to ‘protect’ UK investors from risky investments mean I have to use options and spreadbets- far riskier than the ETF itself.

Next targets are more stocks in China / South America, and potentially some PE funds / fund of funds / similar ideas in the UK. Best opportunities generally look to me to be in natural resources but I have a high enough weight, arguably too high. I’m likely to be very busy the next 3-6 months.

Usually post new ideas in brief on X (twitter) – link is here.

As ever, comments / thoughts /similar ideas welcome.

Manage Your Finances: Keep an Eye on Your Budget and Net Worth

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Lunch Money

Lunch Money logo

Strengths

  • Easy-to-use budgeting tools and net worth calculator
  • Can sync accounts or add manual accounts
  • Customizable transaction rules and report
  • Multicurrency support
  • 14-day free trial

Weaknesses

  • Less aggressive budget than zero-based budgeting apps
  • No mobile app
  • No free plan

The best budgeting apps can help you craft an ideal budget and track other financial metrics such as your net worth, savings rate, and spending patterns. One such app, Lunch Money, offers many features to help make budgeting easier with automatic account syncing, adding manual accounts, and customizing the data.


See if Lunch Money fits your financial needs with a risk-free 14-day trial period.

CRISPR Approval Unlikely in the Near Future, According to Report (NASDAQ:CRSP) – Investorempires.com

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Bill Oxford/iStock via Getty Images

Following the recent FDA green light for the gene therapy Casgevy, “it is unlikely” that approval of a similar product will take place “any time soon,” according to a report by GlobalData.

According to GlobalData, only 24 CRISPR-based drugs are

More on CRISPR Therapeutics

Effortless and Customizable DAO Updates

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Aragon OSx Updates, a seamless way to make security and feature updates to your DAO, is live on the Aragon App. Each DAO deployment is entirely self-sovereign, so updates are always optional. 

Every DAO on the Aragon App is built on Aragon OSx, the underlying DAO framework. With this new feature, your DAO has the option to update its Aragon OSx contracts to the latest version by passing a proposal, giving you access to security and feature updates made by the Aragon team.

This process is safe, easy, and intuitive, no matter your familiarity with smart contracts. The release notes of each update are transparent, so anyone can dive into the details of each update and evaluate it. An example of the release notes can be found here

Each update automatically goes through a safety check that is visible to all DAO members. The safety check analyzes the proposal to make sure that the proposal actions will result in a safe update. For example, it checks that the address of the update is in the Aragon OSx registry, the right methods are called, the actions in the proposal are properly ordered, and more. This protects DAO members from unknowingly passing malicious upgrades that do not come from the Aragon team or do not follow best practices.

If you decide you want to propose the update to the DAO, the necessary smart contract changes are automatically populated as actions within a proposal, so there’s no possibility of adding the actions incorrectly. There is a verification panel that automatically checks if the actions in the proposal are safe, which all DAO members can view. Then, the DAO must pass a vote to make the update available. For the final step, a wallet must execute the action. 

Typically, smart contract updates of this kind require advanced Solidity experience. With Aragon OSx Updates, we’ve made it so that anyone can propose updates safely without writing any code!

Updates are optional and can be made whenever you choose, similar to operating system updates on your computer. In stark contrast to operating system updates, however, there are no “automatic updates” passed without your consent. The App will make you aware that updates are available, but never require you to make the update. Your DAO is self-sovereign, so updates are entirely your choice. 

Every update is built and evaluated carefully within the Aragon team. The Aragon OSx protocol is governed with a 3/5 Aragon OSx multisig, which can upgrade the protocol but not existing DAOs. Security is our utmost priority, so we thoroughly test and evaluate every update. In over six years of building, none of Aragon’s products have ever been hacked, while cumulatively governing over $18B in assets.  

Learn more about Aragon OSx Updates:  

The Aragon App is built on Aragon OSx, a smart contract framework for building DAOs. Aragon OSx is upgradeable, meaning the underlying code of the smart contract framework can be modified, but each individual DAO’s state, address, and balance are kept the same. 

We made Aragon OSx contracts upgradeable to enable us to stay at the forefront of technological advancements in the space. This means there are many versions of OSx, each with new security and feature updates that improve running your DAO. This is similar to the many versions of your Mac or PC operating system—each has different levels of updates that you may want to make in your DAO.

DAOs on Aragon OSx and App are entirely self-sovereign, meaning the Aragon team does not have the ability to change anything on the backend of your DAO.

This is important, because DAOs are inherently meant to be autonomous, self-sovereign organizations. If a centralized party was controlling them on the backend, that would defeat the purpose of what DAOs are made to do.

When you create a new DAO on the Aragon App, it’s automatically created with the latest version of Aragon OSx contracts. But older DAOs won’t be automatically updated with the latest version. That’s why we created a system for DAOs to pass a proposal to install the latest updates if they choose to. 

DAOs can skip updates or forgo them all together. The process is intentionally optional, so you have full domain over your DAO’s contracts.

Create automatically-generated proposals to make updates

Whenever a new update is available, it will appear as a banner on the Aragon App. You can click “view all updates” and see what contract updates are available. Read the details and decide if you want to automatically generate a proposal to make this update. The automatically-generated update removes the possibility of incorrectly configuring the actions. 

Option to evaluate the open-source code in the update before making your decision

DAO members can read the details of the update before making their decision. Each update automatically goes through the safety check process, but DAO members can also read the details of the update before making their decision. Release notes are written to be understood by anyone, even non-technical DAO members. And for DAO members who want to dive deeper, you can read the exact changes that are being made in Github.

All code we push at Aragon is open source. We will never put forward an update that’s not open and readable to anyone!

Make multiple updates with one proposal

You can make multiple updates at once, reducing the governance overhead of multiple proposals. Simply select the updates you want to make and click “Next” to create your proposal. This speeds up the process of getting your DAO contracts up to date!

Plugin updates take two transactions

Plugins—contracts that adapt the governance, membership, or treasury management of your DAO, such as the token voting plugin or the multisig plugin—are also upgradeable. This is important, because it means plugins can get security and feature improvements. 

For added security, plugins follow a two-step process to update. That means you need to sign a transaction to prepare the plugin first before installing it. You’ll see a “Prepare plugin” button when this is required. Simply click the button, sign a transaction, and the plugin will be ready to install after a proposal is passed.

Updating your DAO is never required

Your DAO is entirely self-sovereign. That means you can continue using older version of the OSx contracts on the Aragon App if you choose to.  

Where can I read more about the updates?

Consult the changelog on Github to see what’s been changed with each new iteration of the contracts!

Best 5 Valentine’s Day Party Favors

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What the world needs now, is love, sweet love. The holiday season is quickly approaching which means Valentine’s Day is just around the corner. Americans spent around $25.9 billion on Valentine’s Day gifts and accessories in 2023.

This massive number signals that the February holiday is still a big day for showing love. There are a wide variety of custom party favors for adults you can choose from like custom keychains, custom Valentine’s candy, and rose gold party favors.

If you’re looking for ways to show some love to your B2B clients and employees, look no further than these Valentine party favors.

1. Custom Valentine’s Candy and Food

The old saying that the way to someone’s heart is through their stomach still rings true today. Candy remains a top choice comprising 57% of Valentine party favors and gifts.

For gift recipients with a sweet tooth, a chocolate gift box is a sweet treat. Here are some of our best custom Valentine’s candy favors.

4 Delight Gift Box – Holiday Confections

Want something that offers a little bit of everything? Then the 4 Delight Gift Box is the way to go. This box is easy to personalize with your custom artwork, message, or logo printed right on the box lid.

The 4 Delight Gift Box contains Peppermint Bark, Twist Wrapped Truffles, Milk, and Dark Sea Salt Caramels. It measures 7.75″ W x 7.75″ H x 2.25″ D. The product ships in refrigerated trucks or insulated cartons to maintain freshness.

Browse more of our Valentine’s Day Promotional Gift Items on our website today.

Anticipated Trends in the Insurance Industry for 2024 | Insights from the Insurance Blog

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As we look ahead to 2024, while we see many challenges for the insurance industry, we meet these with optimism. Insurance is a resilient industry with a deep sense of purpose—offering people, families and businesses protection and a more secure future.

What’s the macro-economic outlook?

Global macroeconomic forecasts for 2024 indicate both slowing GDP growth and continuing inflationary pressure. Talent shortages are most pronounced in the U.S. where unemployment is below 4% overall and hovering around 2% for the insurance sector.

Major markets are feeling consumer sentiment headwinds. Our research shows consumers in the U.S. are largely pessimistic due to lingering recessionary concerns. Meanwhile in the U.K., consumer pessimism is coming from uncertainties caused by recent tax changes and their potential impact on public services.

What can the industry expect?

Top-line revenues for P&C insurance carriers move with GDP. Revenue growth for P&C carriers is expected to slow to 2.6% on average for 2024 and 2025—down from 3.4% in 2023 (Swiss Re Sigma).
On the flip side, the Life insurance segment is seeing stronger demand for savings and retirement products. In emerging markets revenue growth is expected to reach 5.1% on average in 2024 and 2025. This revenue growth may soften the impact of the ongoing profitability and liquidity challenges the segment faces.

Claims volumes and costs across lines of business remain elevated in most major markets. While some of this is inflation-driven and cyclical, systemic risks such as social inflation, increasing NatCat claims and demographic shifts in aging, health and mental health are here to stay.
While we remain optimistic about the insurance industry, the challenges we face going into the year ahead are real. Here are five predictions for 2024:

1. Monetizing AI

Since the launch of ChatGPT this time last year, there has been copious Generative AI discussion and speculation—dare we say hype? The reality is that leading insurers have been on the journey of advancing data, analytics and AI for years. In 2024, we will see excitement about the possibilities of GenAI give way to growing demand for material economic impact from AI/GenAI solutions. Insurers who have invested in data, analytics and AI capabilities will incorporate more GenAI as a natural next step on that journey. They will also need to elevate responsible/ethical usage risk controls as AI takes a more autonomous role.

2. Alternative human capital strategies

AI/GenAI has proliferated to decision support, processes and interactions across the insurance value chain. Fortunately, this comes at a time when the industry is under pressure to address looming workforce gaps in both Underwriting and Claims. In 2024, we will see AI/GenAI treated more as supplementary talent. Insurers will also test sourcing models for “complex” work that was closely held and traditionally developed. Making these changes a reality will require the industry to migrate away from traditional talent development through apprenticeship and standard practices of knowledge management.

3. Cost pressures boil over to drive operating model change

Continued, sustained cost pressures are driving heads of divisions and business units to ask, “Whose fault is it anyway?” In 2024, demands for greater autonomy and direct control of costs will increase as mounting internal frustrations and questions about allocation methodologies of centralized costs (and stranded cost from shifts in the portfolio) boil over.

4. Risk portfolio shifts and capital reallocation

While industry convergence isn’t a new phenomenon, more industry players are looking over the fence for greener pastures in P&C, health and wealth management. Automakers want to offer P&C insurance. P&C carriers are getting into health products and services, and health insurers are offering voluntary and supplemental benefits. For many insurers, the greenest pasture is in the retirement space. Millennials and Gen Z will become the beneficiaries of the greatest wealth transfer in history over the next two decades. Their values-driven approach to investing will disrupt retirement and create new opportunities for Life/Annuities carriers who offer a value proposition in alignment with their values.

5. Service revenues climb while risk capital declines

To raise RoE and ease demands on capital as new loss patterns drive up indemnity and volatility, insurance carriers will go beyond traditional product offerings and deeper into advice/services. Tele-health, care navigation and risk mitigation services will become a greater area of focus for carriers in 2024 and beyond.

Review of Portfolio Performance for Year End 2023

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Markets have seen quite the rally in the past two months, my portfolio followed along, pulling my returns for 2023 up to 38.54% for 2023 versus 26.29% for the S&P 500.  My lifetime-to-date IRR is currently 22.47%, which continues to be above my 20.00% goal.  

Despite the good year, I’m still below my high water mark due to a disappointing 2022.  I admire anyone that invests professionally through volatile markets, my returns wouldn’t be as good if I was managing outside capital.

Updated Thoughts on Current Positions

As usual, these brief updates were written over the past two weeks, share prices might have moved around a little, but hopefully still directionally relevant.  Excuse the inevitable typos.

Broken Biotech Basket:

  • Homology Medicines (FIXX) has been the laggard in the broken biotech basket, in November the company announced a reverse merger with Q32 Bio, a private biotech focused on the treatment of severe alopecia areata and atopic dermatitis, hair loss and a skin condition respectively.  The transaction assigned an $80MM ($60MM of cash, $20MM public listing) to FIXX exclusive of their legacy assets, which equates to roughly $1.38/share compared to the current share price of $0.55/share.  The cash at closing is expected to be $115MM, pre-merger FIXX shareholders will own 25% of the post-merger company, or roughly $0.50/share in cash.  It is not unusual in the current market for the enterprise value of a pre-revenue biotech to be near zero, but in addition to the NewCo, FIXX shareholders will get a CVR for the monetization of any legacy assets.  There’s reason to believe that the CVR will have some value, FIXX’s IP had initial positive Phase 1 results, but the data is still “immature and inconclusive”.  Plus there’s the JV, OXB Solutions, that will be put to Oxford Biomedia Solutions for 5.5x TTM revenue by March 2025.  My current plan is to hold through the reverse merger, maybe the name change, upcoming Phase 2 study data readouts (second half of 2024), conferences/investor reach out, etc., will encourage traditional biotech investors to rotate into the stock providing a slightly better exit.  And I’m bullish on the CVR, it’ll act as a liquidating trust, Q32 Bio needs to use “commercial reasonable efforts” to dispose of the legacy assets.
  • Graphite Bio (GRPH) is a similar situation, they also announced a reverse merger in November, this one with LENZ Therapeutics, LENZ has a late stage product candidate for treating near sightedness that is expecting a Phase 3 read out in the second quarter of 2024.  GRPH shareholders will receive approximately a $1/share special dividend at close (targeted for Q1) plus will own 30.7% of the post-merger LENZ.  Post-merger LENZ is expected to have $225MM in cash after close (there’s a $53.5MM PIPE), equating to another ~$1.20/share of cash per GRPH share.  GRPH currently trades at $2.33/share, giving it only a slightly positive enterprise value, seems cheapish for a biotech with a near term catalyst in a big addressable market.  I’ll likely hold onto the stub and see what happens.
  • AVROBIO (AVRO) announced strategic alternatives in July and is still determining its next steps.  As of 9/30, the company has ~$100MM of NCAV, assuming another $10MM of cash burn (they further reduced their workforce in October) before a deal can be commenced would equate to $2/share of value without any value attributed to their IP.  AVRO sold one of their programs to Novartis for $80+MM, the other, HSC gene therapy for Gaucher, might have some value as a kicker.  Shares currently trade for $1.32/share, making it an attractive risk/reward.
  • Pieris Pharmaceuticals (PIRS) ran up quickly after my initial write-up, I took profits, but then it fell and I re-entered, a little too early in hindsight as shares have dropped roughly in half since.  As of 9/30, PIRS had $30.5MM in net current asset value, or $0.31/shares versus a current share price around $0.15/share.  That number doesn’t include a number of IP assets and possibly valuable partnerships, but with limited cash on an absolute basis, they’ll need to move fairly quickly.  Pieris did just terminate their operating lease, often a precursor to a deal announcement.  This one is on the riskier side, but could be interesting if you see any value in their hodgepodge of IP.
  • Sio Gene Therapies (SIOX) is a liquidation that’s now a dark stock.  One reader has been keeping better tabs on the liquidation than me (see the comments), apparently they have two of their three subsidiaries liquidated and should have the third done soon.  The expected initial distribution in the proxy statement was $0.38-$0.42/share versus a current price of $0.37/share.  It’s been an annoying wait with limited-to-no public disclosure, which is one of the downsides of investing in liquidations, you need to have a certain personality quirk to set it aside in the meantime.  Hope this liquidation is put to bed soon.
  • Cyteir Therapeutics (CYT) is in the final stages (as we’ve seen with SIOX, could last a while) of its corporate life, shareholders approved the liquidation plan on 11/16/23 and now we await timing of the liquidation distribution which is estimated at $2.92 to $3.31/share in the company’s proxy.  Liquidation estimates tend to be conservative and this appears to be a cleaner situation than most as CYT is only holding back $500k for a reserve account.  Shares trade at $3.09/share, I likely wouldn’t buy it today, but content to hold awaiting the liquidation distribution.
  • Kinnate Biopharma (KNTE) and Theseus Pharmaceuticals (THRX) are in similar situations to each other where Foresite and OrbiMed, as a group, have indicated plans to make an offer for each company.  Presumably the structure would result in a cash buyout for a discount to net cash plus a CVR for any IP value, similar to Pardes Biosciences (PRDS) which Foresite took private earlier in the year.  Both stocks trade for only a slight discount to my best guess of a take private offer (5-15% upside on each), but it’s worth keeping an eye out for other biotechs where these two are involved as they pop up.  Late breaking news, on the Friday before the Christmas holiday weekend, Theseus announced they reached an agreement with Kevin Tang’s Concentra Biosciences for $3.90-$4.05/share in cash, plus a CVR for 80% of legacy asset sales proceeds and 50% of synergies.  I’m a bit surprised that it was Tang versus Foresite/OrbiMed but hopefully that means well for Kinnate.
  • Eliem Therapeutics (ELYM) is a new addition to the basket, nothing too much has changed since that write-up.
  • Reneo Pharmaceuticals (RPHM) received an offer from Kevin Tang’s Concentra Biosciences for $1.80 per share plus a CVR for 80% of any legacy asset sales.  Considering the company has not yet declared strategic alternatives formally, I think it might be some time before we here an official yes/no response to the offer or an alternative deal.  But with Tang tossing in a cash offer early, maybe it is less likely Reneo chooses the reverse merger path.

Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR) is a broken biotech adjacent idea, unlike the others, this is a revenue generating company that has a non-satin commercial product (Nexletol) for cholesterol.  Esperion is locked in a lawsuit with their primary commercialization partner, Daiichi Sankyo, over a disputed milestone payment tied to the amount of “relative risk reduction” for heart attacks and other cardiovascular diseases/events that was reported in the company’s CLEAR Outcomes Study.  Esperion has a PDUFA date set for 3/31/24 that would expand the label of their primary asset to include cardiovascular risk reduction and a trial start date of 4/15/24 with Daiichi Sankyo.  This remains a speculative idea, but could be a multi-bagger if both catalysts go their way in the first half of 2024.

Mereo BioPharma (MREO) is more of a regular-way biotech, the original thesis revolved around Rubric Capital taking an activist stance and gaining board seats with a general plan to realize the sum of the parts valuation of MREO’s hodgepodge of programs.  No publicly disclosed progress has been made in that regard, but the company did report positive Phase 2 results for Setrusumab in patients with osteogenesis imperfecta with partner Ultragenyx (RARE) that boosted the stock.  Following the announcement, Rubric Capital has been a consistent buyer of MREO shares, giving confidence that their plan is working out.

Albertsons (ACI) and previously unmentioned Spirit Airlines (SAVE) are two well covered merger arbitrage situations that don’t necessarily need more inked spilled on them.  I’ll use this post as a thank you to Andrew Walker and his wonderful Substack/Podcast, he really ramped up coverage on Spirit as the market became increasingly nervous in early November dropping the shares into the low $10s/share.  I picked some up and the market has bid up shares since awaiting a ruling any day now in their anti-trust case with the U.S. government.  Albertsons is facing similar push back, regulators are pointing to local market monopolies similar to Spirit, although I still believe the asset divestiture and any further divestitures should be able to create a compromise situation given Albertsons and Krogers general lack of national overlap.

MBIA (MBI) is a bond insurance company that has been in runoff for many years now.  It has confusing accounting due to a GoodCo/BadCo structure hiding the value of the GoodCo in their consolidated financials.  My original thesis centered around MBIA putting itself up for sale, but as rates increased (this company is also very interest rate sensitive due to their bond investment portfolio) and the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (“PREPA”) restructuring continuing to drag on, the company paused the sale process since they presumably weren’t getting anywhere near management’s adjusted book value of $27/share.  At the start of December, shares were trading under $8/share, then some lucky news hit that National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation (the GoodCo) was dividending up to the parent $550MM in a special dividend.  Much of which was then going to be distributed to MBIA shareholders in an $8/share dividend, more than the shares were trading at the time.  Post special distribution, the company should have a book value of ~$11-12/share ex-BadCo and ~$19/share if you use management’s adjustments and back out the unrealized losses on their investment portfolio and add in their unearned premiums.  On the 11/3/23 Q3 earnings call, CEO Bill Fallon (presumably knowing the National dividend was a possibility/probability) said, “With regard to the strategic alternatives, as we’ve suggested in the past, we think the optimal transaction would be a sale of the company.”  With shares current trading for $6/share, there’s still room for a healthy premium for MBIA shareholders and a discount to book for an acquirer.  Absent a deal, if rates do indeed come down and municipal credits remain strong, MBIA can continue to limp along in runoff, returning capital via either repurchasing shares or potentially more special dividends in future years.  I lost a fair amount on some call options speculating on a takeout earlier in the year, I won’t make that same mistake with MBI today, but I continue to hold.

HomeStreet (HMST) is a regional bank based in Seattle that also does a lot of business in southern California, which was caught up in the deposit flight crisis last spring.  I bought it after a Bloomberg article suggested the company was exploring a merger or an asset sale, later we found out that several bidders have made offers for the company’s DUS business line (a license that allows them to directly originate Fannie Mae commercial loans), but the company has thus far not been agreeable to a sale.  HomeStreet’s deposits costs have risen dramatically, squeezing net interest margin, they’ve cut expenses, and reduced loan originations to the point where they could be classified as a zombie bank.  A full out sale is highly unlikely here in the near term, any acquirer would be required to mark-to-market HomeStreet’s balance sheet, which currently would have negative equity value due to the current value of their loan portfolio (rate driven, not credit driven, yet).  Without the DUS asset sale as a catalyst, this bank is one big bet on lower interest rates, indeed in the last few weeks, shares have spiked back above $9/share.  Tangible book value is $26/share (ex-loan fair market value), if rates decline enough over the next year or two, HomeStreet will limp along until the accounting is satisfactory enough where they become an acquisition target by someone with a stronger deposit franchise.  That’s a bit of thesis drift for me and I have plenty of interest rate risk elsewhere in my portfolio, so I might exit this position for future new ideas.

First Horizon (FHN) is a mid-to-large sized regional bank that does most of its business in the southeastern United States.  It came on my radar when their sale to TD Bank was terminated after regulators made it clear they were penalizing TD for previous anti-money laundering wrongdoings by not approving the merger.  The deal broke towards the tail end of the regional bank panic earlier this year and FHN sold off hard as arbs exited and market participants were unsure if the regional bank model was even sustainable anymore.  Six months later, things have calmed down considerably for banks, deposit costs are still rising but with the Fed about to pivot, many bank board rooms are breathing a sigh of relief.  First Horizon is a solid franchise, footprint has good demographics (although I’ve seen some stories about multi-family overbuilding in Nashville), minimal mark-to-market losses and strong capital ratios to the point where management has signaled plans to return cash to shareholders next year by repurchasing shares.  On the negative side, the bank had a surprise loan go bad for $72MM (Yellow maybe?) and they’ve got some expense ramp happening as FHN modernizes its technology stack.  Today it trades at $13.80/share, tangible book value is $11.22/share, a target valuation of 1.5x book still seems reasonable, which would yield a $16.83/share target price.  I’m content holding until we get a bit closer to that number, maybe get long-term capital gains tax treatment too.

Banc of California (BANC) is another regional bank that closed on their transformational merger with PacWest (PACW) after the former got caught up in last spring’s banking crisis.  Following the merger, Banc of California should have a tangible book value around $14.25/share compared to the current share price of $13.43/share (0.94x book), with earnings guidance of $1.65-$1.80/share (12% ROE, sub-8x earnings).  My thesis continues to be that there will be significant realized synergies as the two banks had significant overlap which will become more apparent in 2025 earnings.  Until then, the bank is in pretty decent shape after an equity injection, low 80s loan-to-deposit ratio and sub-4% office exposure.

CKX Lands (CKX) is a micro cap (~$25MM) land bank in Louisiana where management is potentially looking to take it private (management hasn’t said this explicitly, but the company is exploring strategic alternatives) as plans advance for a carbon capture sequestration plant on or near CKX’s land.  Historically, CKX has generated revenue from timber sales, oil and gas royalties and other miscellaneous land fees.  The rock underneath CKX’s land is porous rock that makes it suitable for carbon capture sequestration technology, which is essentially means collecting the pollutive output of the area’s numerous refineries and piping it back deep into the earth.  If a sequestration plant is constructed on CKX land, the company would be entitled to a revenue share, management might be trying to get ahead of that event by taking the company private.  This article provides a great overview of the sequestration opportunity and mentions CKX CEO Gray Stream quite a bit.  I don’t have a great sense of what the fair value is for CKX, but others more familiar with the situation have put an $18/share value of it, today it trades a bit under $13/share.

Contributing to Retirement at Any Time is Ideal

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“Do you really think you should be voluntarily putting money into your retirement account? It just seems like there are so many other things you could be using the money for right now. Why don’t you wait to contribute to your retirement until you get more financially stable?”

Recently, I was lamenting our financial situation to a good friend. I just had a dental procedure at a periodontist, I was just told my 6 year old has 8 cavities (that’s another story) that will cost $400 out of pocket to fill, and that my 10.5 year old will need braces to the tune of $5,000 or so.

Add on top of that the fact that our car has 150,000 miles on it, and we refuse to borrow for a new one, and well, I’m looking at a lot of financial stress.

Still, these expenses don’t have to be paid immediately. I’m saving money every month for a new-to-us car when our old one finally gives out. I may be able to wait a bit to get my son braces.

I just wanted to vent a bit to my friend and express my frustration.

I was really surprised by her answer. She simply couldn’t understand why we would contribute to our retirement when we have so many impending expenses.

Yet, as Tracy Chapman sings, “If not now, then when?”



Contributing to Retirement at Any Time is IdealThere’s no good time to save for retirement.

You could always use the money for something else.

When my husband and I were newly married 14 years ago, I made a little over $30,000 a year. We lived in the suburbs of Chicago, which wasn’t cheap. My husband was a graduate student and didn’t work. We were flat out broke.

And my employer had a mandatory rule that 8% of my gross income would go to my retirement savings.

I HATED that rule. There were so many other things that I could have used that money for, but I had no choice.

Eleven years later, when I left the job and walked away with 11 years of retirement savings at 8% of my gross salary plus an equal match by my employer, I was ecstatic that I was forced to save for retirement.

Now, my husband is working for an employer who has the same rule, and we’re happy that 8% of his gross salary goes to his retirement account.

We’ve learned our lesson so well, in fact, we are also contributing to our Roth IRA even though money right now is T-I-G-H-T.

But really, for most Americans, money is almost always tight.

I would rather scrimp and save now, while we still have many working years left before retirement than scrimp and save during retirement, constantly worrying if I had enough money to last me until the end of my life.

So, no, my well-intentioned friend, I don’t think I should stop contributing to my retirement. In fact, there’s no better time than now to save for retirement.

Oh and incidentally, if you are reading this and thinking about early retirement its important to consider the non-financial aspects, such as…what will you do with your time?

If not now, then when?

Do you continue to contribute to your retirement when facing large expenses, or do you wait to contribute until your finances improve?