Home Blog Page 5

Review of CVS Health Stock at CVS

0

CVS health is a huge American retailer and health care services provider.

They operate pharmacies, convenience stores, walk-in medical clinics and through Aetna they have a very large health insurance business.

 

Huge eh?  How huge is huge?

 

CVS ranks number 7 on the list of biggest US retailers by revenue.  On top of that, Aetna (which merged with CVS at the end of 2017) ranks number 6 on the list of biggest US health insurance companies.

The CVS name is ubiquitous in the US.  With almost 10,000 locations, no matter where you are, chances are you are within walking distance of a CVS:

hat/tip: https://www.scrapehero.com/location-reports/CVS%20Pharmacy-USA/

 

Executive Summary

 

  • The bad news: The CVS merger with Aetna in 2018 saddled the company with what can only be described as a huge steaming pile of debt.  71B worth to be exact.  Top that off with the fact that the retail industry faces enormous structural problems and the fact that Amazon is getting into the pharmacy business and you can see why Wall St hasn’t been excited about CVS for quite some time.
  • The good news: But all is not lost!  Over the past few years CVS has paid off quite a bit of debt while growing free cash flow.  Despite that CVS still only trades for EV/EBIT of 10.5x.  That’s not bad at all considering the S+P500 is trading at nosebleed valuations of almost 35x earnings.  Management has also stated that with debt coming into a manageable range they’re expecting to start point their cash cannon at shareholders in 2021.

 

The bad news

 

CVS Health maxed itself out to buy Aetna in 2017.  They went into the deal with 22B of debt sitting on the balance sheet and came out the other side with 71B of debt.  The interest expense on that debt was a whopping 2.6B in 2018 which did not leave much room for error considering the operating income before interest expense in 2018 was only 4B.

On top of that the pharmacy business that is at the heart of CVS health was a serious target for retail disruptors.  Pharmacies have high margin, recurring revenue, and are obvious candidates for at-home delivery.  This makes CVS’ core business a target for attack.

The picture has improved over the past two years but those two risks still overhang CVS.

Although the debt pile is smaller and the interest charge is lower, there continues to be real pressure from the outside on their pharmacy business and having a huge pile of debt really prevents them from plowing that cash flow back into store upgrades and e-commerce platforms.

 

The good news

 

When management went into the 2018 year they knew they needed to get the debt under control and that’s what they’ve done:

  • 2018 debt balance – 71B
  • 2019 debt balance – 69B
  • 2020 debt balance – 64B

While at the same time free cash flows have been going in the other direction:

  • 2018 free cash flow – 6.8B
  • 2019 free cash flow – 10.4B
  • 2020 free cash flow – 13.4B

They put up that impressive 2020 number despite navigating the ups and downs of the pandemic.

 

On top of that, the cost of maintaining the debt they still have has gone down considerably

 

The 10yr treasury yield was 2.67% at the end of 2018 and sits today (even with the recent run up) at 1.48%.

That means, all other things being equal, the cost of the debt that CVS carries has dropped by 45% of the last 2 years!

(I know I’m glossing over some nuances here but I never claimed to be an expert)

 

Despite all that good news Wall St still doesn’t seem to believe the story

 

The stock price closed 2018 at $65.19 and today prior to open it trades at only $68.47.

But of course you are all too smart to fall for that deceptive math right?  Share price without share counts are useless!

CVS issued quite a bit of stock in 2019 so if you incorporate the share counts you see market cap was 68B in 2018 and is 88B now (a modest 30% improvement in valuation).

Given that over that same time frame the S+P500 has gone up 44%, CVS is way behind.

And from a FCF perspective, at year end 2018 with a market cap of 68B the company traded at 10x FCF and as of today despite the 30% increase in market cap the company trades at only 6.7x FCF because cash flow improvement has outpaced the stock price appreciation.

TLDR?  CVS is cheap cheap cheap compared to its peers, its history, and its cash flow.

 

Conclusion

 

Once again DRI is breaking its own rules.

We said we were done with retail…and we’re investing in retail.

We said we didn’t like debt…and we’re buying a company with more debt than some sovereign states.

But strange times call for new ideas.  And remember this pearl of wisdom,

“Nearly every lesson you think you’ve learned will be the wrong lesson to apply at some point in the future.”

So we’re going to break all our own rules and buy some CVS.

 

 

Disclosure: Donkey Rockets is long CVS

 

 

 

 

Did you enjoy this article?  Have a look at some of our other recent posts

 

Disclaimer: donkeyrockets.com is not operated by a broker, a dealer, or a registered investment adviser. Under no circumstances does any information posted on donkeyrockets.com represent a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The information on this site is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, investment advice or recommendations. In no event shall donkeyrockets.com be liable to any member, guest or third party for any damages of any kind arising out of the use of any content or other material published or available on donkeyrockets.com, or relating to the use of, or inability to use, donkeyrockets.com or any content, including, without limitation, any investment losses, lost profits, lost opportunity, special, incidental, indirect, consequential or punitive damages.

Former Chief Justice Lalit: LGBTQs Cannot be Reserved on the Basis of ‘Vertical’ Categories like SC, ST, OBC

0

Former CJI UU Lalit (Photo: PTI)

Former Chief Justice of India U U Lalit on Thursday said the LGBTQ community is not entitled to claim “vertical” reservations like those given to the Scheduled Castes (SC), Scheduled Tribes (ST), Other Backward Classes (OBC), or Economically Weaker Section (EWS).

He, however, said they may claim “horizontal” reservation on the lines of the ones for women and persons with disabilities.

Justice Lalit, who retired as the 49th CJI in November 2022, was answering a query during the question and answer session after delivering a special lecture on ‘ffirmative Action and Constitution of India’ at the India International University of Legal Education and Research (IIULER) here.

When asked whether the LGBTQ community will ever come under the ambit of constitutional affirmative action/reservation, he said, “Theoretically yes, but if I give the counter argument, not to belittle the idea, but to see that my birth in a community like SC, ST or OBC is something beyond my capacity while sexual orientation is my choice.” “It is not thrust upon me as an accident of birth. So it is not through my sexual orientation that I am deprived of anything. Someone who is born as a third gender is a matter of accident of birth and there the affirmative action is a yes. But for most of the LGBTQ community the orientation is their own choice,” he said.


The former CJI said the community members have adopted it as a choice.


“Nonetheless, I don’t think there would be negation of the idea that perhaps in future they can also be part of affirmative action to a certain extent,” he said.


He said the reservation that the Constitution has recognized for SCs, STs, OBCs is “vertical reservation”, which means an SC cannot be an ST or OBC and vice versa.


“This kind of reservation is for vertically separate compartments. There are horizontal reservations also like those for women and physically disabled people and similarly the LGBTQ can be a horizontal reservation category,” he added.


Horizontal reservations means one will be taking a slice out of the individual vertical column without increasing the total reservation quota size, the former CJI pointed out.


“Like a woman can be an open category or can be SC, ST or OBC or EWS. The horizontal category traverses horizontally without increasing the total size of reservation. Similarly, perhaps this LGBTQ category can also be a horizontal reservation category, But that is a matter for the Parliament to consider. Nothing wrong in considering a particular group as a group,” he stated.

(Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

First Published: Jan 11 2024 | 11:53 PM IST

Aragon OSx and the Aragon App Debut on Arbitrum

0

Launch a DAO on Arbitrum and build in a thriving ecosystem of protocols, assets, and applications.

Arbitrum is a Layer 2 rollup scaling Ethereum. With over $7 billion total value locked and 55% of the L2 market share, Arbitrum is the industry’s most popular L2 solution.

Arbitrum’s battle-tested, market-leading technology makes Ethereum more accessible with lower gas costs and faster transactions. Its security is inherited from Ethereum and is a time-tested solution for your DAO and its assets.

Deploy your DAO on Arbitrum using the modular DAO framework, Aragon OSx, or the no-code Aragon App today!

Arbitrum is by far the most adopted rollup in the EVM ecosystem, both in terms of TVL and protocols launched on the network. In addition to being home to impactful multichain projects like Stargate, Arbitrum has spurred many exciting native projects like GMX, Tenderize, and Plutus. We are excited to join such a vibrant ecosystem. 

— Ivan Fartunov, Head of Ecosystem

Ethereum mainnet has the most access to liquidity and highest security, but it also has high gas costs and slow transaction times. These barriers lead people to choose off-chain solutions, which lose some advantages of being deployed on a blockchain.

Arbitrum solves the problems of operating and governing on Ethereum mainnet. It gives you the scalability you need to run your DAO, without sacrificing on security. Transactions are significantly cheaper, so votes and actions are much lower cost. And bridging assets to Arbitrum is simple, so you can have access to the liquidity you need.

Think of Arbitrum as your starting point to access the entire world of Ethereum! 

Save DAO resources and increase voter turnout with lower gas costs

Arbitrum transactions are just a fraction of the cost of using mainnet, which can save your DAO significant resources. Creating and running a DAO requires multiple onchain transactions, all of which cost fees. When deployed on Arbitrum, your DAO can save funds because actions such as casting votes, adding new members, and sending assets will cost significantly less. 

Lower gas costs have another key advantage: they can help increase voter turnout. When members don’t have to pay gas fees, they might be more likely to participate in votes. Higher voter turnout also increases governance security, because it ensures more DAO members are making sure proposals are aligned with the DAO.

Reduce time spent on DAO admin and governance with faster transactions

Transactions on Arbitrum settle much more quickly than they do on Ethereum, saving you and your members time. Arbitrum processes around 40,000 transactions per second (TPS), while Ethereum only processes around 20-40. This means don’t have to wait the standard 9 minutes for each mainnet transaction to settle to get to your next task. Instead of waiting for your transaction to confirm, you can get back to building. 

Inherit security from Ethereum and a time-tested solution

One of the primary reasons to deploy a DAO on mainnet is because of security. But with Arbitrum, you don’t have to sacrifice on security to get scalability, because the rollup inherits the security of Ethereum. 

If any fraud is detected, it can be verified and then penalized on Ethereum. So, you can have peace of mind that your DAO and its assets are secure.

Full EVM equivalence makes building easy

If you’re building a custom DAO on Aragon OSx, you can deploy on Arbitrum without making technical modifications. Developers can migrate from Ethereum mainnet to Arbitrum with minimal modifications, making building on Arbitrum fast and easy! 

Arbitrum and Aragon have one key thing in common: building technology that opens doors to Ethereum and makes onchain actions attainable for all users.

Both Aragon and Arbitrum have a shared vision to bring the world onto Ethereum through more accessible gateways. Arbitrum’s rollup technology serves as a gateway to Ethereum, and Aragon’s user-friendly DAO tech stack makes it possible for anyone to build a DAO.

With the industry converging on Ethereum as the base infrastructure for a thriving ecosystem on top, value and resources don’t have to be fragmented across Layer 1 chains that all serve different purposes. Instead, with the thriving Layer 2 ecosystem and Arbitrum leading the way, assets and value will be accrued to the same base layer. Ethereum’s secure, decentralized technology underpins the revolutionary protocols and apps that will change the world.

Top Winter Giveaway Ideas for Promotions

0

What does “winter” first bring to mind? Is it the fresh air mixed with the crunching of frost beneath your feet? What about warm comfort food in a cozy setting surrounded by friends or family? Just as cities expect an influx of people in the summer, you should plan for a rush of branded giveaways in winter. You will grow brand awareness while using cost-effective marketing skills. With so many rivals in the business world, using the best promotional apparel and ideas is vital. To uncover what you need to know about a successful winter season, read our guide until the end!

1. Sustainable and Eco-Friendly Custom Promotional Items

Since the early 1980s, the rate of global warming has doubled. Earth’s temperature once grew at 0.14° F per decade but has now increased to 0.32° F.



Use the Best Promotional Winter Giveaway Ideas This Year

Winter is a time for festive activities and an upbeat spirit. But as someone who runs a business, it also allows you to promote your brand.

While other companies take the pedal off the gas, you can build your empire. Since there are endless rivals, it’s vital to get a head start and take the step up.

After reading our Best Promotional Winter Giveaway Ideas Guide, you learned the ins and outs of advertising. If you’re ready to put your firm in the spotlight and get an early Christmas present, uncover Amsterdam Printing deals today!

Seizing the Opportunity for Inclusive Insurance | Insights from the Insurance Blog

0

Leading insurers are defining new revenue paths while contributing to communities in the process. This is defined as inclusive insurance, a concept that is playing a key role in the insurance industry’s evolution.

Take two of the major global carriers, Generali and Allianz: Generali has created The Human Safety Net, to support families living in vulnerable circumstances. Allianz has created insurance offerings that cater towards migrants living in Europe. These insurers understand that inclusion at all levels is an urgent priority. The World Bank Group considers financial inclusion, the umbrella financial services term under which inclusive insurance sits, a key enabler to reduce extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity. Women, minority groups, and those in low-income communities are the statistically underserved or excluded population in the insurance market. This is important to bear in mind as underserved customers feel the pressures of the current macroeconomic environment. The need for coverage at affordable prices is growing, suggesting a rising opportunity for insurers with adequate products and services. If we consider this statement as insurers, our mandate is clear: being financially inclusive enables us to better protect the individuals and communities we serve while providing increased premium growth for the sector. Inclusive insurance is a revenue growth opportunity; not a CSR-only initiative.

Two key ways inclusive insurance provides a new source of revenue to insurers

Inclusive insurance in the retail insurance market creates a pathway to protection for those who have otherwise been marginalized, and an opportunity for insurers to expand and capture that market. The two key points of impact are as follows:

1. Attract new customers to traditional products

When insurers expand their circle of protection, they open the door to new customers. First, insurers can provide new, accessible points of connection for consumers. Previously uninsured consumers in this segment have indicated they do not know where to start in the insurance process. It has been learned that because they don’t resemble the historically typical insurance consumer, these consumers may simply assume that they do not qualify to be insured with no further knowledge on how to determine eligibility. It’s important to remember that in this context, emerging consumers differ to other segments in that they may not have had access to family, colleagues or communities to educate them on and introduce them to the financial protection market. Luckily, with the explosion of access via online, social and app-based engagement, there have never been so many options to attempt to reach underserved or excluded communities. Insurers who are taking advantage of these channels and connecting to consumers to influence behavior via an omni-channel approach are positioning themselves for success in capturing available market share. It is the power of conversion driven by easy-to-engage education that is creating market winners for carriers and consumers.

Insurers have an opportunity to also change the perception that their underserved consumers have of their insurance providers. Fifty-five percent of a US sample average of middle and high income consumers owning a home or auto insurance would recommend their insurance providers to others. This compares to only 46% of low-income consumers (score 9 and 10 on a 10-scale range).

2. Create new products that meet the needs of new customers

A. Expand customer base

In addition to attracting new customers to traditional/existing products as illustrated above, companies can also expand their customer base by creating new products/services that meet the needs of the underserved or excluded consumer market (e.g., low-cost products or products with shorter-term coverage).

For example, Allianz’s Emerging Consumers Business aims to provide insurance to the poorest segments of the economy. They operate this program across their entire footprint, including Europe by offering various insurance products for migrants in Europe (also covering family members abroad), life insurance (term, credit, savings-linked life), and personal loans and auto-insurance for the unemployed who require a vehicle to travel to access work in France.

Making insurance more accessible may seem like an obvious win, and an intuitive part of any growth strategy. However, historically this attention to and level of inclusion has not existed.

B. New products and distribution

Create sought-after, innovative new products and creative distribution powered by data and analytics: Inclusive insurance offers an exciting opportunity for innovation across distribution and product. Insurers can evolve the current portfolio of products to extend coverage to this underserved market through creative distribution that can serve in concert, not conflict, with their current distribution landscape and insurers can create new or evolved products with different coverages that are truly tailored to the needs of the segments.

Take the home insurance market, for example. The national average for homeowners’ insurance is found to be $1,854 (for dwelling coverage of $300,000) which is almost 18% more expensive than the top five cheapest home insurance companies. On average, homeowners in low-income areas pay $117 more for home insurance than residents in wealthier districts, a trend that is more pronounced in the largest cities in 34 U.S. states. Despite these consumers paying more, they are under-insured for their needs and over-insured for the portion of the policy that they are largely unlikely to use (e.g., flood coverage in a non-flood zone).

The ‘surcharge’ low-income homeowners pay equates to about 1% of the median income average across the largest cities’ lowest-earning neighborhoods. This figure can reach as high as 11% in some states.

The European Market Opportunity

In one example from 2021, the philanthropic branch of a European Insurer worked with Accenture to create a business case for developing inclusive insurance solutions that would solve for the ‘protection gap’—the difference between economic and insured losses—which hinders young families and migrants trying to build economic resilience. Accenture conducted inside-out and outside-in analysis to help the foundation understand the market opportunity, potential for investment and the social and financial impact of inclusive insurance. An approximate €250 billion market opportunity in Europe was uncovered through new insurance products and changes to premiums. It was calculated that between €188bn – €385bn of insurance premiums would be competed for in Europe through 2025 due to ESG trends disrupting the market. Within this larger market opportunity, the client began to explore inclusive insurance opportunities specifically valued at between €4bn – €14bn.

Conclusion:

There is no doubt that financial inclusion is a prominent topic of discussion among consumers, governments and regulators. The G20 has voiced its commitment to financial inclusion and advancing diverse leadership teams in insurance that represent all interest groups. By embracing inclusive insurance, companies not only establish themselves as industry innovators, but future-proof their business for the regulation of inclusion by ensuring they are doing everything necessary to innovate for historically excluded consumer segments as a business imperative for growth. Inclusive insurance presents a clear opportunity for insurers to generate revenue and to embody the core values of the industry to support and protect individuals, businesses, and societies while increasing the sector’s economic opportunity. If you’d like to learn more about how insurers can continue to see the people behind the policies, build relevance and grow, please read our Insurance Consumer study. If you’d like to discuss in more detail, please reach out to Heather Sullivan or Nina Munoz.

7 Financial Objectives to Increase Wealth in 2020 + Enter to Win $20!

0

The Wall Street Journal recently shared there are two times when you are most likely to follow through with your money goals (or any goal for that matter): the new year, and your birthday.

So, if you want to become richer in 2020, now is the best time to set up the money goals necessary to achieve success.

While the specifics of your goals should be tied to your individual situation, here are a few ideas to get you started.

When you start brainstorming your financial goals for the year, make sure to keep an eye on the big picture. It’s easy to get caught up with trivial saving and earning goals – but those won’t make you rich.

Instead, focus on the high-level items below and you’ll be well on your way to ending this year with far more wealth than you have now.

1. Start tracking your finances and credit score


Do you know your total net worth, how much cash you have in the bank, and how much debt is on each of your credit cards? Knowing these details is an essential first step to building wealth. And it’s actually very easy to do.

I use the free tool, Personal Capital, to track all of my finances in one place – and I LOVE it! After connecting my credit cards, banks, investment accounts, and Zillow property values, everything updates automatically. All I need to do is log into one account to see my net worth over time, all of my debt, and whether I’m making more money than I spend every month (which is very important for building wealth).

Additionally, keeping a high credit score can literally save you thousands of dollars a year – as it’s a key factor used to determine interest rates for your mortgage, car loans, etc.. And it’s rumored that some employers will even look at credit scores when deciding whether or not to hire someone.

While there are many services online that offer to track your score if you pay them – you should never need to pay for your credit score. Many credit cards will now provide you with a free copy of your credit report every quarter. Alternatively, another one of my favorite tools, Credit Karma, will give you free access to your credit report – along with providing free tax preparation software.

2. Do an audit of your ongoing expenses (This could save you thousands!)

Audit your expenses

Many people end up paying recurring fees for unnecessary and unused services. Some examples of costs you should review to start off your new year (and potentially eliminate) include:

Stop paying storage fees for junk you don’t use

If you pay to store a boat, RV, or storage unit full of old furniture, ask yourself if it’s really worth the cost. If you spend $1,000 to store an RV you take out for one week a year, it may be worth it to rent instead. And if you’ve had a storage unit for over a year, and you aren’t in the process of moving, it’s time to get rid of it.

Stop paying high insurance premiums “just in case”

Every insurance agent on earth will try to oversell you with “just in case”. Insurance should be to protect you from costs you cannot afford – buying extra only benefits your agent.

My initial homeowners insurance quote charged me $50 to protect against lawsuits due to animal attacks on my property (I don’t own a pet and I live in the city) and $75 for identity theft protection (which my banks and credit card providers already cover for free).

Make sure you’re only paying for insurance you need – and you could cut down your annual costs by a few grand.

Find and stop hidden subscription services

So many people still pay $10/month for a Hulu or Netflix free trial they forgot to cancel 2 years ago.

You should never pay for a subscription service you don’t use (or forgot about). So start tracking those recurring expenses and turning them off!

Check to see if your credit card company or bank tracks these recurring expenses for you. If not (or if you want extra protection) consider using the free tool Trim.

The Trim App tracks your financial accounts and sends you texts if it notices a recurring payment, annual fee, or surprise transactions. Trim can save you on all kinds of bills.

Negotiate lower bills for your utilities and other recurring expenses

The last tip for lowering your monthly bills with your financial audit is to ensure you’re paying the lowest price necessary for your necessary recurring expenses.

Earn Money With Social Marketing | Make Money Online

0


Thanks for tuning in to [Wealth Manifesto] – where we empower you to achieve lasting financial success! #WealthBuilding #FinancialSuccess #GetRichSlowly #LongTermInvesting #FinancialFreedomTips

source

Deep Value Investments Blog: New Investment Opportunity in Anglo Eastern Plantations (AEP.L)

0

Added quite a bit to this and think it’s a better opportunity now than it has been for quite a while due to catalysts which appear round the corner.

As of writing its a c5% weight.

Brief summary, Anglo Eastern Plantations is a family holding company involved in palm oil plantations which has had a generational change of management, hopefully leading to a change in strategy. Lim Siew Kim held 51% and died on 14th July 2022. She was the daughter of the patriarch of the large Malaysian Genting group (mostly hotels).

The market cap is around £337m whilst it has c£223m in cash / short term investments. There is c£200m in plant and cash (post capex including growth capex) generated worth c£69.5m – or c20% of the market cap, or to put it another way c60% of the ex-cash market cap. This is based on strong palm oil prices, which are roughly double potential lows on the 25 year chart… They also process bought in palm oil and have rubber plantations.

It’s difficult to work out what this is actually worth. If you look at value per hectare MP Evans said an independent valuation put it at c$15’000-$20’700 / hectare. AEP has about 90’000 hectares (less in reality as not all can be used / planted), it also has planted 67’000 hectares (report P5). Putting it together gives a high value of $1.4bn / £1.1m – so roughly c3x the current price. I have my doubts as to this valuation – as it would mean that (based on last years profit, from a year with high palm oil prices – we would be trading at 10 PE (ignoring the cash) – seems a little high… (similar multiples vs FCF). To put this in context, Indonesian interest rates are 5.75%. In terms of comparators 1961.KL trades at a PE of 24 but are a far larger player. Genting Plantations (GENP:KLS) is on a PE of 11 (with some debt), then again Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP:KLS) is on a PE of 4.5, again with some debt. Even if we value earnings at 4.5x we get to £312m plus 223m cash plus something for the plant I presume (£100m) – so almost double current market cap… Ultimately, to me, it is hard to justify the current valuation.

Of course there are many companies trading below what they are worth, particularly based in Asia with a dominant, family shareholder. The company has acted pretty much as an effectively dead holding company for years, accumulating cash, paying a minimal dividend and growing it’s own book value per share. In it’s defence a few years ago many of it’s trees were young / immature and over the years they have gradually increased their planted area – from 57’100 hectares in 2012 to 75’204 hectares in 2021 (P53). As oil palm trees take 6 years to become maximally productive we can expect some ongoing growth in production.

I believe the change in management will lead to a change in how the company operates to a more shareholder-friendly model. In their latest announcement they said they would consider buying back shares.

The Board has also been receiving increasing requests from shareholders to buy back AEP’s shares with the cash balance. The Board has in the past been reticent on share buy backs because of the lack of evidence that a buy back directly results in an increased share price, especially with the lack of liquidity of the Company’s share and buy backs could cause the shares to be more illiquid. Nevertheless, the Board has taken on board shareholders’ sentiments and will consider launching a modest buy back programme in a timely manner and at a efficient price. Further details will be communicated to shareholders in due course. The last time AEP bought back its shares was in 2007 with a purchase of 50,000 shares at £3.86 per share.

The dividend has also quadrupled to 25c per share (0.20 GBP) – giving a yield of c2.3%. There has also been a director buy of £126k, from what I can see the first transaction in many, many years, prior to the dividend / buyback announcement. This is particularly significant as the exec buying shares gets paid $87k/£70k per year by the company. It is a little tricky for them to buyback shares as the major shareholder is already at 51% and their shares are rather illiquid.

One of the things I like is that the whole board only gets paid a few hundred k. I am very very sick of managements being ridiculously paid, whilst taking zero risk and adding very little. It shows the advantage of a strong, controlling shareholder – in preventing snouts going in the trough. Having said that corruption is a problem in Indonesia and in the palm oil sector more generally, though I have no evidence / specific suspicion Anglo Eastern is involved.

I generally avoid companies with such a dominant controlling shareholder but will tolerate it in this instance, I generally prefer a balance of power amongst shareholders, I will watch for related party transactions / other shenanigans.

My hope for this is that there will be more shareholder friendly actions – it doesn’t make sense to run this as a perpetual cash accumulation machine, eventually it either needs to acquire / pay out cash / both. I am quite happy that they keep a store of cash, even that they keep a substantial cash balance – I am aware it’s inefficient, from a strict perspective – but the problem with using credit is you are always at the mercy of your creditors – and when you need money no-one wants to lend. This is particularly a concern in agriculture which is subject to disease / climate as well as potentially volatile pricing. Having said this, the cash is 3 years worth total expenses (excluding palm’s bought in for processing – very much a pass through / margin earning business). This is a ridiculous amount by any measure. I believe a substantial amount can be returned to shareholders.

The worst case scenario for me is that nothing happens, in this event I’d suggest a likely price would be in the 600p-900p range. If the company is run in a more rational, shareholder friendly way its a likely double or more, but at relatively low risk, I’d hope it will happen in a year or two. Some possibility of a buyout/ trade sale if the controlling shareholder wants it.

This should come with a health warning that many of my ideas haven’t worked particularly well of late. I am actually only down c4-6% ytd (S&P+10%, FTSE+5%) though it feels like I am down far more. When things have worked out for me – PTAL / KIST rises are very limited and not sustained, when events have gone against me falls are excesssive and sustained (GKP / JSE). One way to play this could be short term trading – getting the 20% spikes where possible and quickly getting out at the first sign of trouble. However, the commodity producing shares I am investing in of late are trading at (often low) single digit PE’s with strong balance sheets (generally) so I think they will rerate substantially in time, potentially very rapidly. I am not convinced trading is the way to go long term, hopefully this view will pay off in the longer term. The market really doesnt like commodity producers, pretty much at any valuation, particularly non-ESG compliant ones.

As ever, views appreciated.

Fundstrat’s Prediction: Bitcoin Could Reach $500,000 in the Next Five Years, According to Investorempires.com

0

Market research boutique Fundstrat envisions Bitcoin (BTC) reaching $500,000 per coin within the next five years – in large part due to expected Bitcoin spot ETF approvals.

“I think in five years, something around half a million would be potentially achievable,” said Fundstrat’s Tom Lee in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday.

How Meaningful Is A Bitcoin ETF?

Lee stood by his prior predictions that Bitcoin could reach above $100,000 and possibly tap $150,000 within 2024 alone.

“There’s a finite supply, and now we have a potentially huge increase in demand with a spot Bitcoin approval,” he explained.

Bitcoin underwent major volatility on Tuesday after a fake SEC tweet claiming spot ETFs were approved sent the asset to a new multi-year high of $47,800.

Industry figureheads have predicted for months that ETF approvals would unlock vast pools of institutional capital previously incapable of purchasing spot Bitcoin.

In November, ex-NYSE president Tom Farley – who now spearheads his own crypto exchange – predicted that money will “flood” into Bitcoin after ETF approvals.

Impending Capital Inflows To Bitcoin

According to Lee, approvals will likely establish a generational divide in terms of how investors gain exposure to Bitcoin.

While younger investors may prefer to own the coins in their actual wallets, those over age 50 – who control 76% of all wealth in America ($120 trillion) – may stick to public markets and proxies.

“There’s a generation of folks who would rather allocate through their 401(k), or through public markets, or liquid assets,” Lee added.

The analyst previously called for $180,000 BTC by the April 2024 “halving” back in June, due to expectations that an ETF might have been approved by Q3 of last year.

Lee isn’t alone in his bullish projections. Bernstein analysts wrote in November that Bitcoin would likely reach $150,000 by mid-2025 based on its theoretical four-year-cycle.

On Monday, Standard Chartered published a note calling for Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, with ETFs soaking in $50 billion to $100 billion by the end of this year.

Meanwhile, April’s halving event is widely expected to trigger a supply crunch for new coins, coupling a supply shock with the demand shock brought about by ETFs.

SPECIAL OFFER (Sponsored)

Binance Free $100 (Exclusive): Use this link to register and receive $100 free and 10% off fees on Binance Futures first month (terms).

The Impact of Institutional Adoption of Cryptocurrency on the Market

0

Cryptocurrency is gradually being accepted by institutional investors. This has led to increased crypto prices and market capitalization. However, institutional investors are still waiting for clarification from regulators on some issues before they can fully commit to the crypto market. In this article, we will discuss the role of institutional investors in the crypto market and their influence on prices.

What Are Institutional Investors?

Institutional investors are entities that manage large amounts of money, such as pension funds, hedge funds, mutual funds, and venture capital firms. They are considered to be “smart” money because they invest in research-driven opportunities and have the resources needed for proper due diligence.

As the name implies, ‘Crypto Institutional Investors’ are the ones that are interested in crypto markets. These crypto institutions are investing large amounts of money in crypto assets and crypto-related products, such as futures contracts and crypto tokens.

Importance of Institutional Investors Entering Into Crypto

Institutional investors provide much-needed liquidity to crypto markets. This means that crypto prices will be less volatile since there is more demand from institutional investors who can absorb market shocks better than retail traders.

Institutional investment also brings legitimacy to crypto markets and encourages other institutional players to enter the crypto space.

When institutional investors enter a crypto market, it gives confidence to retail traders who then buy into crypto assets at higher prices. This increases crypto market capitalization and overall crypto prices.

With the ability to invest such large amounts of capital, crypto institutional investors can also influence crypto development and adoption by providing the necessary funding for crypto projects such as crypto exchanges, crypto wallets, and other important infrastructure for the Web3 economy.


Crypto Institutional Adoption: How Far Are We?

Crypto institutional adoption is still in its infancy. There are unresolved regulatory issues that need to be clarified before institutional investors can fully commit to crypto markets. Many of these issues revolve around taxation, custody solutions, and the lack of retail-friendly crypto products.

Meanwhile, crypto companies such as Coinbase and Bakkt are making strides in working with regulators to ensure crypto markets are compliant with existing laws. Regulatory clarity and crypto infrastructure advancements will pave the way for increased crypto institutional adoption in the future.

Shima Capital, Invesco, and Felix Capital are some of the leading crypto-focused institutional investors. These companies are investing in crypto startups to help them develop the technology and services needed to make crypto mainstream.

ARKK is another firm that is bullish on crypto and although they don’t hold Bitcoin or other crypto assets directly, due to the limitations of index fund clearance, they own various crypto companies. When there is more regulatory clearance, this institution will likely invest more in this emerging asset.

Kevin O’Leary (Entrepreneur and Investor) has expressed his insights on crypto institutional adoption throughout many interviews. He explains that although many crypto enthusiasts are against regulations, he believes as soon as crypto becomes regulated, we will see more institutional adoption and crypto prices will soar.

Sovereign wealth funds are another large pool of capital that could flood into the crypto markets in the coming years. Sovereign wealth funds can be best understood as state-owned funds used to manage a portion of the government’s assets. Crypto regulations need to become clearer before these institutions begin making substantial crypto investments.

Of course, we also have entire nations that are embracing crypto, such as El Salvador. These countries have crypto-friendly regulations that allow crypto companies to operate within their borders. This could attract crypto-related investments from institutions around the world.

When it comes to private companies, crypto exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken are providing crypto custodial services for institutional investors. This helps crypto firms comply with regulations set by the SEC, such as those related to crypto custody.

Many central banks have been showing interest in similar but vastly different digital currencies called CBDCs. Although this may not be the same as cryptocurrencies, it shows that crypto-related technology is slowly being embraced by the traditional financial system.

With all these crypto-related developments, crypto-institutional adoption is inevitable. But crypto markets need to become more stable and provide more crypto products that are tailored towards retail investors before we can see crypto institutional adoption reach its full potential.

Therefore, the interest from institutions is here, but the crypto markets will just have to wait for regulatory clarity and stronger infrastructure to accommodate these massive funds.

Crypto institutional adoption sign

Final Thoughts

At the end of the day, crypto institutional adoption is something that will take time but could provide crypto markets with much-needed liquidity and stability. Investors should be aware that crypto institutional adoption is still in its infancy, so the crypto market will likely experience significant volatility in the short term.

The best way to stay up-to-date with the latest crypto news so that you can prepare for the massive waves of monetary energy entering this market is to use Algory News Aggregator. By doing so, you can have the quickest access to the most advanced news about crypto markets. This is an essential tool for traders and even just those interested in being the first to learn about crypto institutional adoption.

It is important to note that this article should not be considered financial advice but rather informative. Cryptocurrency investments carry a high degree of risk due to their volatile nature and it is important to understand all the risks involved before investing.

Additionally, it is beneficial for retail traders to do their own research on crypto projects before investing. Doing so helps ensure that they make informed decisions about their crypto investments.

In conclusion, crypto institutional adoption is still in its early stages but it has already had a positive effect on crypto prices and market capitalization. While there are unresolved regulatory issues that need to be addressed before institutional investors can fully commit to crypto markets, the future of crypto looks bright as more institutions enter the space.

DISCLAIMER: This article is not financial advice and should not be considered as such. Cryptocurrency investments carry a high degree of risk due to their volatile nature and it is important to understand all the risks involved before investing. Trading crypto-assets involves significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital.

Crypto-Trading-Tools